As I mentioned in a post a few weeks back, I believe that based on past market history, goat prices in 2013 are going to go up. But as I said in the post, this is only my opinion. However, the Goat Rancher magazine has recently published an article by Dr. Frank Pinkerton and Dr. Ken McMillin that uses USDA and NASS research to draw a similar same conclusion.
According to article, the "total goat numbers [between 2008 and 2013] declined by 9.9%, while meat goat numbers declined by 10.6%." As I discussed in my post, this was most likely a result of the economic downturn and the droughts that have hit the country over the last few years. By looking at basic supply and demand, the diminished goat population alone suggests a sales price increase in the near future.
But further in their article, Dr. Pinkerton and Dr. McMillin make their full prediction for 2013 goat prices:
"We expect good prices to continue and peak just prior to Easter, drop a bit in April and more in May; thereafter, the June-swoon will occur. If rainfall levels permit, we expect a good late summer, early fall market for replacement females."
They support their conclusion with some very interesting statistics and information (if you're into that sort of thing). It's a very well written piece and I highly recommend that you read it. Since it is only Part I, we can all look forward to an update later in the year!
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